
| Mar 19 2010, 18:46:18 GMT | Sydney: | 04:46 | Tokyo: | 03:46 | Barcelona: | 19:46 | London: | 18:46 | New York: | 13:46 | San Francisco: | 10:46 |
Fundamental analysis in foreign exchange involves studying numerous events that occur in areas of economics, finance, or politics, as well as economic fundamental data such as interest rates, inflation rates, trade balances, the growth in gross domestic product, foreign investment, and a host of other data that provides the most significant information to FX traders.
Technical analysis involves the study of past price movements to forecast future price trends. Technical analysts are also called chartists because they use a variety of charting techniques to identify patterns in market data. To identify trading opportunities, technical analysts look for:
Trend lines
Support and resistance
levels
Moving
averages
Other
market phenomena
The assumption
is that all fundamental
factors are already
automatically reflected
in prices. Some traders
use only one type of data
analysis, but many use
some form of both.
Long run fundamentals are used to determine the equilibrium value of the currency. In the long run, a currency’s value should gravitate towards this equilibrium value, so determining this value provides information on the probable path of exchange rates going forward. But because currency values can deviate from equilibrium for significant time periods, market participants also study short-term indicators as well. Also, in looking at each factor in isolation, it is wise to keep the words “all things equal” in the back of one’s mind.
Fundamental factors
can and do act in
opposition to each other,
so the influence of any
one factor may not result
in the expected effect
when considered with
other factors in the FX
market.
Technical analysis covers an extremely broad spectrum of concepts and techniques. Many technical methods are quite complex, relying on reams of statistical information. Other technical methods may be simple and are based on rather simple visual interpretation of a price chart.
According to Briefing.com, these markets are the seven most influential on CME Group markets of the 30+ leading economic indicators published on a regular basis, in descending order of importance:
Nonfarm payrolls (NFP)
Institute for
Supply Mgt (ISM) index
Retail sales
Consumer Price index
(CPI)
Chicago
Purchasing Managers index
(PMI)
Durable
orders
Gross
Domestic Product
(GDP)
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