SOFTS:

MAR COTTON: It triggered a buy yesterday and rallied to 76.17 today before selling off and closing near the low end of the day’s range. Long term it is in resistance and that concerns me. It is resistance that goes back years. It also has had a huge move on the monthly without any correction – roughly from 55.00 to 76.00. A correction would be healthy for the market. Just watching. Closed 74.88, down 89.

MAR ORANGE JUICE: Switching to March. Long term OJ is in resistance and has started to sell off. On both long term charts the current waves up have exceeded projections – suggesting an over bought market. Today was an inside day on the daily chart. If OJ sells off under 134.05 tomorrow, it is triggering a sell. If it rallies above 137.10 it is triggering a buy. Because of the above concerns, I would not take a buy signal. Closed 134.05, down 2.75.

MAR COFFEE: It triggered a buy yesterday from a huge outside day on Friday. Too much risk required for that trade. Bottom line, even though it rallied above that “problem area” (146.00) yesterday, it is having trouble maintaining it. Long term it is pushing into resistance. Just watching. Closed 147.20, up 1.30.

MAR COCOA: Last time I pointed out the concern for the 34.00 resistance. It just doesn’t go away. The contract high on the daily chart was 34.39 in late October. Since then it got to 34.37 last Friday and that was it. It has been trying to get over 34.00 and stay for well over a week but just can’t seem to hold it together. Just watching. Closed 33.75, down 36.

MAR SUGAR: It rallied to 25.72 today. The previous contract high was 26.25 in early September. It then sold off today and formed a key reversal top. The long term charts are in resistance. It is doing one of two things. If it sells off from here, it is to test the breakout from 24.00. Or this whole rally was a fake breakout of that area. As pointed out many times, markets tend to do that more often. Watching closely. Closed 24.82, down 46.

See the balance of my morning comments at my website. For my complete coverage, visit my commentary page at www.markethead.com/2.0

Judy Crawford is a senior broker and analyst for the Zaner Group (www.zaner.com), a Chicago-based futures brokerage firm. Email Judy at jcrawford@zaner.com 

The information in this Report and the opinions expressed are subject to change without notice. Neither the information nor any opinion expressed constitutes a solicitation by Judy Crawford or the Zaner Group of the purchase or sale of any futures or options.

Futures and options trading is speculative in nature and involves substantial risk of loss. Spread trading is not necessarily less risky than outright positions. All known news and events have already been factored into the price of the underlying commodities discussed.