
| Feb 9 2012, 11:24:47 GMT | Sydney: | 21:24 | Tokyo: | 20:24 | Barcelona: | 12:24 | London: | 11:24 | New York: | 06:24 | San Francisco: | 03:24 |
Renewed demand for risky assets is helping to drive the December Treasury Bonds lower. Technically the T-Bonds may have made a secondary lower top on Tuesday after testing the retracement zone at 133’03 to 133’22. The actual rally to 133’12 completed a 50% retracement of the 135’19 to 130’12 range.
If a secondary lower top has been formed and appetite for risky assets continues to grow, then look for this market to break lower. A trade through 130’12 will not only take out a swing bottom to turn the main trend down, but it will also put the market on the bearside of a 50% level, setting up a further decline to at least 129’11.
Ahead of the release of this afternoon’s Federal Reserve Beige Book, the U.S. Dollar is trading weaker against most major currencies. This report shouldn’t be a market mover, but traders should read it to gain a little more knowledge into what the Fed looked at when it made its recent Federal Open Market Committee decisions.
The Japanese Yen is under pressure versus the U.S. Dollar at the mid-session after rising to a 15-year high against the Greenback. Strong moves in the equity markets are helping to revive the carry-trade too. The Yen also took a hit this morning after Japanese government officials expressed apprehension about the rise in its currency.
Technically, the September Japanese Yen is forming a closing price reversal top. This pattern, if confirmed, often triggers the start of a two to three day correction with a minimum objective of 50% of the last swing up. If this is the case this time, then look for a short-term retracement to at least 1.1877 or maybe as low as 1.1831.
The Japanese Yen chart will get most interesting if 1.1867 is broken. At this time, the Yen is set up for a weekly reversal, but a close under 1.1867 will put the market lower for the week, forming a possible major top.
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