A tight trading range, increased volatility, high correlations, and quick reversals…sound familiar. Oil will close down almost 1% today briefly trading below $73/barrel. Prices are fast approaching the previous support levels that held in both May and July. Will three times be a charm? We’re advising clients to lightly gain bullish exposure expecting prices to be back over $80 in the coming weeks. Natural gas gapped lower but was able to pare losses somewhat closing only marginally lower. Some of our braver clients are buying trying to catch this falling knife. Our only reprise is that clients are only lightly buying and we would not advise adding to the position until a bottom is established. We expect one day for prices to pop 5% and for prices not to look back. At the moment we’re either wrong or early but clients will stay the course. Indices remain range bound as we expect to see prices not wander more than 3-4% from their current values in either direction in the immediate future…trade accordingly. At these levels we suggest scaling into longs ion cocoa. Sugar is back above 20 cents/lb for the first time in seven months. Clients have NO exposure. December cotton looks ripe for a correction. The Pakistan flood news is old news and in my opinion already factored into the current price. If lean hogs fail to make new highs in the coming sessions aggressive traders can fade the current rally with stops above 80 cents in October. We’re still anticipating a correction back near $1200 in December gold. Our opinion would only change on a settlement above $1236. Our bias remains bullish in silver as long as the 200 day MA supports; in September at $17.80. Our current suggestion is scaling into futures with stops below that level or to purchase December call spreads. As we’ve voiced in recent posts we’re expecting a trade lower in agriculture; corn, soybeans and wheat. As for trades we’ve recommended buying the dip in corn and have purchased some put options for some clients in wheat as we think a 50-75 cent fall is coming. The dollar appears to be moving higher and we suggest selling rallies in the Euro and Loonie as for trades. Our targets are 1.2450 and .9350 respectively.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
(954) 929-9993 fax
matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com

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Trading in commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.