Traders that have been around know this all too well “plan your trade” and “trade your plan.” Crude will finish lower today but well off it’s lows on a bearish inventory report. On such a bearish report the fact that Crude was able to hold its own we think a rally is in the making.

As long as $75 holds on a closing basis we still expect a grind to $80/barrel in the coming weeks. At these levels risk/reward we suggest bullish exposure in natural gas. Our suggestions include scaling into October futures and purchasing 50-70 cent November call spreads. We expect sideways sloppy action in the indices; a settlement below the 50 day MA at 1085 should mean 1035-1050, a settlement above the 20 day at 1103 should mean a challenge of 1125.

Not to exciting but we view this as a tradable range. December cotton closed down for the third consecutive session; aggressive traders could purchase December put options. November lumber is back above the 50 day MA; we’re thinking a 15-20% appreciation is feasible from here. Comparing the current Treasury market to the NASDAQ tech bubble in my opinion is not a fair comparison. I do think it will end ugly but not because of greed but rather investors realizing 2-4% over decades is a losing investment.

A top could be in the making but I suggest waiting for evidence and being late to the trade. Live cattle made a fresh 2010 high today. We expect a higher trade but want a retracement before re-establishing longs for clients. October closer to 93-94 cents and December closer to 95-96 cents. Lean hogs are back above the trend line and once again in my opinion have become a buy dips market. The 20 day MA at 76.30 in October should serve as support. Gold gains again for the fifth consecutive session; I got to tell you though a set back to $1195-1200 looks likely.

Silver closed down 1% but the 50 and 100 day MA’s did support. We view support at $18.25 followed by $17.80; these levels need to hold for my clients to remain bullish. Between now and the fall we do think $20/ounce will happen but will a washout in the interim try to shake out the weak longs? Continue to buy dips in corn, soybeans are a sale and we think both KCBOT and CBOT wheat could drop 50-75 cents at any moment. Flip a coin in currencies we have no feel.

Risk Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.

Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
(954) 929-9993 fax
matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com

Please do not place any trade orders via email as they will not be executed.

Trading in commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past performance is not indicative of future results.