September
8th is a big day, 2010 Rosh Hashanah; the Jewish New Year and the first
official trade day of Galico Capital (Bradbard’s
new CTA).Crude traded well above the 20 day MA but failed to
settle above that level; in October at $74.60. We suggest light long exposure
anticipating a trade above the down sloping trend line in the coming sessions.
If so we would anticipate a quick gain of $3-4. The distillates; heating oil
and RBOB also look like an interim bottom has formed and we should be
trading higher from here. Continue to scale into November natural gas future
and to purchase November call spreads. We’re anticipating a 50-75 cent
appreciation in the coming 30-45 days…trade accordingly. Clients were advised
to initiate their first short leg today in the S&P; we’ve yet to get
short futures but did start legging into bearish put spreads. Some clients
bought November 1100/1000 1:2 put spreads paying$550/premium plus fees. We will
likely be trying to get long December cocoa with clients tomorrow…stay
tuned. We’re still advising clients to position themselves in March 2011
put options in sugar thinking a 10% correction is around the bend. Intra-day
lumber traded up limit; some clients still are holding a small position long
November. We feel a trade to $250 could happen in the coming weeks. We advised
clients in 10-yr note put spreads to offset their positions at a small profit
moving to the sidelines. On a rally we will likely be getting clients short
again. December live cattle rallied back up the 20 day MA, what was support now
has become resistance. We are suggesting getting short December futures and
selling out of the money puts to smooth the ride…contact us for
clarification. Our target in December is 96 cents. Both gold and silver look
for ripe for a correction; clients own NO gold and have lightened up on their
silver. Short term traders look elsewhere but long term traders should buy a
dip. A 50% Fibonacci retracement in December silver drags prices back below $19/ounce.
We advised clients to lighten up on their December 2010 corn in recent sessions
as we want to book a profit ahead of Friday’s USDA report. Our suggestion
would be to buy a dip in either December 2010 or December 2011 contracts. In a
perfect world that is 30 cents lower. Yes yields have been revised down but
that is likely already factored into the market; buy the rumor sell the fact.
Wheat gave up 3.4% today it looks like prices in December CBOT and KCBOT wheat
will see a trade back below $7/bushel. We will be waiting till after the USDA
report to establish new wheat positions for clients. Nothing new to report in
forex; our suggestion is stand aside.
Risk
Disclosure: The risk of loss in trading commodity futures and options can be
substantial. Past performance is no guarantee of future trading results.
Matthew Bradbard
MB Wealth Corp.
(954) 929-9898
(954) 929-9993 fax
matt@mbwealth.com
www.MBwealth.com
Please do not place any trade orders via email as they will
not be executed.
Trading
in commodity futures and options involves substantial risk of loss. Past
performance is not indicative of future results.
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