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FINANCIALS: 11/15/10 Higher closes Friday for the eurodollars while lower for the notes and bonds.. The eurodollar still has a double top while pretty much going nowhere at this time while the notes look toppy and are now close to a sell signal.

The quantitative easing (QE) talk on the street this week has been along the lines of (a) is quantitative easing baked into asset prices?, (b) will the Fed’s announcement on November 3rd trigger a “sell the news” event, (c) the perception of too much QE could spark inflation fears and push interest rates up, and (d) too little QE could result in a “disappointment sell-off” in stocks and commodities.

A Wall Street Journal article (10/27/10) on quantitative easing (QE) hints the Fed will take a middle of the road approach in terms of the size and duration of QE2. As we would expect, the stock and commodity markets’ initial reaction is negative. A middle of the road approach to QE seems counter intuitive to the Fed’s own historical analysis of why quantitative easing was ineffective in Japan. In CCM’s July 2010 review of James Bullard’s Seven Faces of “The Peril”, our read between the lines interpretation of Bullard’s take on QE included:

With markets coming off of overbought levels, bullish sentiment high, and gold backing off a vertical ascent, we believe investors need to be ready for a quantitative easing (QE) disappointment pullback. A “buy the QE rumor, sell the QE news” event needs to be considered from a portfolio management perspective. Having said that we also believe most investors and many financial professionals do not fully understand how QE works in the real world and that one of QE’s primary objectives is to inflate asset prices.