Fundamental analysis in foreign exchange
involves studying numerous events that occur in
areas of economics, finance, or politics, as well
as economic fundamental data such as interest
rates, inflation rates, trade balances, the growth
in gross domestic product, foreign investment, and
a host of other data that provides the most
significant information to FX traders.
Long run fundamentals are
used to determine the
equilibrium value of the
currency. In the long run, a
currency’s value should
gravitate towards this
equilibrium value, so
determining this value
provides information on the
probable path of exchange
rates going forward. But
because currency values can
deviate from equilibrium for
significant time periods,
market participants also study
short-term indicators as well.
Also, in looking at each
factor in isolation, it is
wise to keep the words
“all things equal”
in the back of one’s
mind.
Fundamental
factors can and do act in
opposition to each other, so
the influence of any one
factor may not result in the
expected effect when
considered with other factors
in the FX market.
According to Briefing.com,
these markets are the seven
most influential on CME Group
markets of the 30+ leading
economic indicators published
on a regular basis, in
descending order of
importance:
Nonfarm
payrolls (NFP)
Institute for Supply Mgt (ISM)
index
Retail sales
Consumer Price index (CPI)
Chicago Purchasing
Managers index (PMI)
Durable orders
Gross
Domestic Product (GDP)