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Back from Vacation 9/10/10

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 10 Sep 2010 21:14:00 EST

Most traders that took the summer off should be back at work next week so look for volumes to increase. It may have taken a pipeline explosion but Crude oil as of this post is approaching the 50 day MA up by 3% today. This is the up move forecasted for several weeks. Make yourself a believer because we should see a probe at $80 in the coming weeks.

September 8th 9/8/10

No Author — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 22:22:00 EST

September 8th is a big day, 2010 Rosh Hashanah; the Jewish New Year and the first official trade day of Galico Capital (Bradbard�s new CTA).Crude traded well above the 20 day MA but failed to settle above that level; in October at $74.60.

Daily Commodities Update: Live Cattle

AutoChartist.com — Wed, 08 Sep 2010 17:41:00 EST

Live Cattle�s 240-minute time frame has consolidated into the narrowing range of a Triangle pattern. Because of the quiet, sideways range (confirmed by the three-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading) wait for a breakout higher through 9950 (X) or breakdown lower through 9740 (Y). Currently, the MACD Histogram reading is very low and nearly flat, which sets up a move to either side of the pattern.

Daily Commodities Update: U.S. Light Crude

AutoChartist.com — Thu, 02 Sep 2010 20:00:00 EST

U.S. Light Crude enjoyed its largest single-day rally since the climb through 80.00 on August 2. While the bulls certainly enjoyed the August 2 move, the rally throughout Wednesday�s session was markedly more important in terms of establishing buying support near the bottom of a large intraday Triangle on the 240-minute time frame.

A New Month 9/1/10

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:45:00 EST

Outside markets likely helped Crude oil trade higher today because the inventory report certainly wasn�t bullish. We maintain that if $71.50 can hold on a closing basis on the October contract that a bottom is in the making. Our upside target into next week is $77.25-$78.50.

Markets Appear Ripe for a Sustainable Bullish Turn

Ciovacco Capital Management — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 21:43:00 EST

Early September is very important for the financial markets; especially for the bulls. Numerous elements are in place for a rally to take hold now. The markets have been weak and the bears have been in control. If the bulls cannot make a stand soon, it will be a bad sign for risk assets. The good news for the bulls is several factors, across numerous markets and asset classes, are pointing to a possible rally in risk assets:

Daily Commodities Update: Gold

AutoChartist.com — Wed, 01 Sep 2010 16:34:00 EST

After a dramatic rally higher, which resulted in a strong intraday uptrend, Gold�s short-term chart looks ready for a correction lower. Small corrections did occur as Gold approached the eventual session high; however, prices were unable to sustain the steep uptrend and the 15-minute time frame now seems ready to roll over. When it comes to reversals however, a sentiment shift must take place in order to get sufficient follow-through: with the Channel Up pattern alert, just such a reversal opportunity may be on the horizon.

Another one Bites the dust 8/31/10

Matthew Bradbard — Tue, 31 Aug 2010 23:03:00 EST

Eight months are gone and many traders are Happy to see this one behind them. Ugly action in Crude with prices approaching their lows from last week after today�s action. The wind has been taken from the bulls sails but as long as $71 holds on a closing basis we think we�re close to an interim bottom.

M&A is that Enough??? 8/30/10

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 30 Aug 2010 22:31:00 EST

Mergers and Acquisitions are heating up but that alone does not signal an all clear in my opinion. To see continued upside follow thru in Crude the first hurdle we need to overcome is $75.85 in the October contract; the 38.2% Fibonacci retracement level. From current levels we anticipate a 5-8% appreciation in the coming weeks. We expect a move as such in Crude to lift the distillates 12-15 cents lifting prices back over $2/gallon. Talk of increased hurricane activity lifted natural gas prices today.

Capital Deployment 8/26/10

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 26 Aug 2010 20:28:00 EST

Finally it looks like the smart money is recognizing the opportunity in a non-correlated asset class, i.e.COMMODITIES. Crude oil has appreciated 3.7% off yesterday�s lows which we feel will serve as an interim low. Our upside targets on October are $75.85 followed by $77.50.

Wolf Market? 8/23/10

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 23 Aug 2010 20:48:00 EST

A tight trading range, increased volatility, high correlations, and quick reversals�sound familiar. Oil will close down almost 1% today briefly trading below $73/barrel. Prices are fast approaching the previous support levels that held in both May and July.

Jobless Recovery Anyone? 8/19/10

Matthew Bradbard — Thu, 19 Aug 2010 21:17:00 EST

Oil will finish down today but notice the chart pattern; a higher low and higher high. We think scaling into longs at these levels makes sense as a trade back over $80 is expected in the coming weeks. The distillates are expected to find support at the current levels as well; RBOB and heating oil have been unable to make new lows in the recent sessions. Ugly reversal lower in natural gas today with a 20-25 cent trading range.

Trading Plan 8/18/10

Matthew Bradbard — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 20:52:00 EST

Traders that have been around know this all too well �plan your trade� and �trade your plan.� Crude will finish lower today but well off it�s lows on a bearish inventory report. On such a bearish report the fact that Crude was able to hold its own we think a rally is in the making. As long as $75 holds on a closing basis we still expect a grind to $80/barrel in the coming weeks.

Weekly Commodities Update: Silver

AutoChartist.com — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 17:13:00 EST

The congestion on the daily chart of Silver has found a range between 1870 and 1734. Prices are currently favoring the top half of the range and therefore the downtrend line resistance comes into play for a potential breakout. The Descending Triangle pattern on the daily chart has taken nearly two months to form, making it a large enough formation to trigger a market reaction.

Wheat experiences failed Bull Triangles

Rick Alexander — Wed, 18 Aug 2010 16:18:00 EST

GRAINS: 8/18/10 Higher closes Tuesday for rough rice, corn, oats,soybeans, soymeal and soyoil while lower for Minneapolis, Kansas City and Chicago wheat. All of the wheat are still in uptrends but were especially hurt technically in Minnneapolis (Monday) and Kansas City (Tuesday) with failed BULL TRIANGLES OR PENNANTS (Take your pick) with little support underneath near term which makes going long dangerous at their present levels unless trading options.

Market Indecision 8/16/10

Matthew Bradbard — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 20:11:00 EST

Call it the summer doldrums but a majority of markets appear to be waffling back and forth. October Crude appears to be digging in its heels around the $75/barrel level. Aggressive traders could probe longs as we see prices back over $80 in the coming weeks. In this sector if forced just to pick one market we would prefer to be buying natural gas at these levels as opposed to Crude.

December Gold Tests Fib Retracement Level

James Hyerczyk — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 18:54:00 EST

The weaker Dollar and struggling equity markets helped trigger an early session rally in December Gold. After finally breaking through a key 50% level at $1215.00 last week, gold has been underpinned by expectations of a weakening equity market.

Daily Commodities Update: Gold

AutoChartist.com — Mon, 16 Aug 2010 17:46:00 EST

The intraday uptrend in Gold is slowly losing bullish momentum as prices are squeezing into the narrowing range of a Rising Wedge pattern. The trend that helped the pattern form has transitioned into a tighter, sideways channel with resistance at 1217 (B). The range-bound movement is confirmed by the three-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading which indicates that an accumulation market cycle has formed on the 30-minute time frame.

Shot out to Santelli 8/13/10

Matthew Bradbard — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 21:18:00 EST

One simple question does anyone beside Rick Santelli understand the ramifications of kicking the can down the road? Oil appears to have dropped enough to find some interested buyers trading down just over 7% this week. We�ve advised traders to take at least partial profits on shorts as there should not be much more work on the downside in our opinion.

Daily Commodities Update: Brent Crude

AutoChartist.com — Fri, 13 Aug 2010 18:40:00 EST

The mark down cycle (more commonly known as a downtrend) has lost the bearish momentum it once had on the 30-minute Brent Crude chart. The transition from a downtrend to a more sideways, volatile market cycle has been confirmed by the five-bar Autochartist Initial Trend reading. This trend identification is vital to managing the Channel Down breakout that occurred when prices rallied through the 7600 level (E).